America's TOP 5 Next Recovering Job Markets

Employment Outlook for Q1 2010

By Prashant Gopal

The recession appears to be over and America's job-market recovery should get under way next year (assuming there's no dreaded double-dip downturn). In the first quarter of next year, the nation's annualized job growth rate will fall by just 1%, according to a projection by Moody's Economy.com. Compare that to the first quarter of this year, when payrolls contracted by nearly 6%. But some metros will far outperform the nation and could be in recovery mode by late this year. We asked Economy.com to rank the country's metros by projected first-quarter job growth and found some surprising results. Read on to see which metros will have the fastest and most robust job growth.

TOP 5 RANKED

1. Mount Vernon, Wash.

Q1 2010 annualized job growth: 2.7%
Q3 2009 annualized job growth: -4%

First quarter of recovery: Q4 2009
Unemployment rate: 10.1%
Median household income: $53,656

Mount Vernon, a small town in the Skagit Valley, about 60 miles north of Seattle and 80 miles south of Vancouver, has a historic downtown, nearby whale-watching tours, eagle-watching and kayaking. The town's small job market has retracted significantly and could be poised for a rebound. Mount Vernon's relative affordability makes it an attractive alternative to Seattle.

2. Huntsville, Ala.

Q1 2010 annualized job growth: 2.6%
Q3 2009 annualized job growth: -2%

First quarter of recovery: Q4 2009
Unemployment rate: 8%
Median household income: $51,798

Huntsville's strong economy is likely to get stronger. Builders are busy putting up new apartments and houses to accommodate hundreds of families moving into the area as part of the Base Realignment & Closure consolidations at Redstone Arsenal. In addition to the arsenal, the city is known as the home of the U.S. Space & Rocket Center, where scientists designed space rockets in the 1950s and visitors now come for interactive exhibits, rides, and movies.

3. McAllen, Tex.

Q1 2010 annualized job growth: 2.6%
Q3 2009 annualized job growth: 5.6%

First quarter of recovery: Q4 2009
Unemployment rate: 11.8%
Median household income: $30,157

McAllen, an affordable town about 10 miles from the Mexican border, is growing quickly with the arrival of immigrants, including wealthy Mexican homeowners. The health-care, education, and business sectors are expanding to accommodate the new residents.

4. Brownsville, Tex.

Q1 2010 annualized job growth: 2.2%
Q3 2009 annualized job growth: 1.7%

First quarter of recovery: Q4 2009
Unemployment rate: 10.9%
Median household income: $29,519

Brownsville, with a population of nearly 200,000, is booming in large part because of the Port of Brownsville, the state's southernmost international seaport. The weakening dollar could continue to give a boost to exporters in the coming year.

5. Auburn, Ala.

Q1 2010 annualized job growth: 1.9%
Q3 2009 annualized job growth: -1.8%

First quarter of recovery: Q4 2009
Unemployment rate: 8.8%
Median household income: $39,299

Auburn, a small college town located just west of the Georgia border, is centered around Auburn University, which employs more than 7,000 people. Small college towns have been relatively protected during the recession.